EXPERT PICKS
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JOE KRISTUFEK
EXPERT SELECTIONS
Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on horse racing. A self-proclaimed 'horse racing ambassador', Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to more than 35 tracks across North America.
November 5, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information, tune in to 'Churchill Downs Today' presented by twinspires.com one hour before first post every racing day, watch the pre-race paddock shows and follow Joe on Twitter @JoeyDaKRacing.
RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 8-3/4-5-1
| 8 | AUTISM COMPASSION | Improved with blinkers; finishing punch |
| 3 | BUMP IN THE NIGHT | Broke slow, was hung wide & faced much better in debut |
| 4 | LATE NIGHT LIZZIE | Sliding down the class ladder; exits key races |
RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 6-3/7-1-4-2/5
| 6 | SPIELMAN | 2nd best to monster last out; same race make him tough |
| 3 | MULLION | Mandaloun's little brother returns from long vacation |
| 7 | ARTWELL | Trains with speed & has excuses; might put it all together |
RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 3/1-2/4-6-7/5
| 3 | PIGALLE | Entered & scratched against the boys on Friday; her race to lose |
| 1 | GOLDCREST | Eyes 3rd straight win off the Vandenberg claim |
| 2 | LITTLE DIXIE | Eyes 3rd straight win off the Vandenberg claim |
RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 1-5-9/3-4
| 1 | JT'S IMAGINATION | Put it all together in last; can win right back |
| 5 | STORMQUIST | Overmatched in last; finds a softer, logical spot here |
| 9 | HEY JOE JOE | Tripped out in maiden win; fits well with these |
RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 10-4/2-6-9/5-8-7-3
| 10 | SILVER ROSE | Solid 3rd behind talented top pair on debut; tosses the blinkers aside |
| 4 | HALINA'S FORTE | Tearing up the work tab for a barn that does well with debuters |
| 2 | FREEBURN | La-bred with lots of pedigree & strong connections in her corner |
RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 6-7-5/9-3-4-8/2-1
| 6 | CHURCHTOWN | Forgive KYD clunker; has speed but can sit just off it |
| 7 | OCEAN ATLANTIQUE | Ran too well to lose last out; as good as any here |
| 5 | GRAY'S FABLE | Old timer still has plenty of spring in his step; versatile |
RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 4-7/3-6-2/9-1/8
| 4 | SAMURAI PRINCE | Drops a notch off better than it looks 4th in last |
| 7 | NIFTY | More than capable with A-game; watch tote clues |
| 3 | PALACE KITTEN | Claim out of four of last five starts; gives it his all |
RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 4-11/6-8-10
| 4 | UNDER OATH | Last race is a complete toss-out; drops into a win spot |
| 11 | BROKEN RIB | Is begging for a hot pace to kick at; drop helps |
| 6 | GREY'S THE BOY | Drops in fresh for dangerous team |
RACE 9
5:05 PM
Selections: 4-8/12-10-5-3/7-11-9
| 4 | BABA VOSS | Followed up huge maiden score with a 3rd at this level |
| 8 | OK BOOMER | Touch of class; TAP sends fresh, fit & ready to go |
| 12 | TALL BOY | Majorly compromised at the break in last; must work a trip here |
JOE'S TOP PICK STATS FOR FALL MEET 2023 THRU 11-4-23
| RACES | 51 |
| WINS | 13 |
| 2ND | 9 |
| 3RD | 10 |
| WIN % | 25.5% |
| WPS % | 62.7% |
| $2 ROI* | $2.55 |
*ROI is the return on investment of a $2 win bet of our top pick. An ROI of more than $2.00 indicates profitable selections. The average horseplayer has an ROI of $1.60.
SCOTT SHAPIRO
EXPERT SELECTIONS
Scott Shapiro is the Senior Racing Analyst for Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. He fell in love with thoroughbred racing when his father took him to Garden State Park in 1985 to see Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck race in the Jersey Derby instead of the Preakness Stakes. Scott graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1996 and is an avid NFL and PGA fan. His favorite horses are A.P. Indy, Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Victory Gallop, and Ghostzapper.
November 5, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.
RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 7-3-5-1-4-8
| 7 | ISA LEI | Stretches out to mile after stalk & fade on debut vs similar |
| 3 | BUMP IN THE NIGHT | Did not do much running in 1st start, but it came against much much better than what he meets today |
| 5 | CRY IF I WANT TO | Was bet down to favoritism on debut, but disappointed public w/ off board effort |
RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 3-2-6-1-4
| 3 | MULLION | Is full-bro to Mandaloun; meets soft group in first start since Aug '22 |
| 2 | CHIRON | Has shown talent despite 0 for 12 record; gets barn upgrade |
| 6 | SPEILMAN | Has shown a solid turn of foot; picks up pieces under Graham |
RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 3-7-4-1-2
| 3 | PIGALLE | Ran into Cox buzzsaw when seen last this summer at Pea Patch |
| 7 | CHICA DE ORO | Half-sis to the Player tries dirt for first time |
| 4 | CENTER STAGE | Moves back to main track & attracts Gaffalione |
RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 9-1-2
| 9 | HEY JOE JOE | Has improved since adding blinkers two-back; lures Hernandez, Jr. |
| 1 | JT'S IMAGINATION | Looks to work out second consecutive perfect trip under Tyler |
| 2 | SMOOTHDINI | Offers solid value underneath for barn that won 3 on Saturday |
RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 10/3-5-4
| 10 | SILVER ROSE | Encountered a much stronger group on debut; blinkers come off for 2nd lifetime try |
| 3 | ROUND THE TOWN | Has been given time after racing wide throughout vs live group of turf sprinters in NY |
| 5 | MISCHIEVOUSNESS | Tried hard in 1st start after being beaten out of gate; moves fwd in 2nd try |
RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 7-5-8-6-3-4
| 7 | OCEAN ATLANTIQUE | Was caught wide & further off pace than normal in last; gets more favorable voyage this afternoon |
| 5 | GRAY'S FABLE | Should be finishing well at solid price under Loveberry |
| 8 | WINFROMWITHIN | Is likely to set early pace, but can he finish deal for 1st time in over a year |
RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 3-7/4-6-2-1
| 3 | PALACE KITTEN | Could not run down stablemate in last, but gets much better setup in 1st start for O'Dwyer |
| 7 | NIFTY | Has been freshened up after failing to take advantage of favorable raceshape/track profile on 8/13 |
| 4 | SAMURAI PRINCE | Drops slightly in class in 2nd try off claim for Cano |
RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 11-4-6
| 11 | BROKEN RIB | Made solid middle move before tiring vs better in late Sept |
| 4 | UNDER OATH | Drops in for tag for initial time after botching break in 1st start off layoff |
| 6 | GREYS THE BOY | Moves back to main track in 1st start since early July |
RACE 9
5:05 PM
Selections: 4-12/1-11-3-5-8-9-10
| 4 | BABA VOSS | Runs them down in lane to close racing week |
| 12 | TALL BOY | Was cost all chance shortly after start last out; needs to avoid wide trip into 1st turn |
| 1 | OSCAR AWARD | Saves ground throughout under Santana & grinds out minor share |
SCOTT’S TOP PICK STATS FOR FALL MEET 2023 THRU 11-4-23
| RACES | 52 |
| WINS | 12 |
| 2ND | 10 |
| 3RD | 9 |
| WIN% | 23.1% |
| WPS% | 59.6% |
| $2 ROI* | $1.94 |
*ROI is the return on investment of a $2 win bet of our top pick. An ROI of more than $2.00 indicates profitable selections. The average horseplayer has an ROI of $1.60.
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